Trade Opportunities for the USA and Europe with Russia Post-Sanctions

Introduction

Eurasian Trade Group’s analysts, as of May 8, 2025, have undertaken a detailed examination of the trade potential for the United States and Europe with Russia, should sanctions be lifted. This report outlines opportunities across key sectors, evaluates the economic impact of current restrictions, and projects future growth based on historical trade and new prospects. Russia’s $7.19 trillion Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP and its central role in Eurasia present a substantial market. Assuming a full restoration of USA-Russia relations, the scope for expansion is significant. For further discussion, our team is available to provide tailored insights.

Historical Trade Baseline

In 2021, prior to intensified sanctions, trade with Russia was robust. The United States recorded $36 billion in total trade—$6.4 billion in exports and $29.6 billion in imports. The European Union, a major partner, achieved €257.5 billion ($283.25 billion), with €99 billion in exports and €158.5 billion in imports. These figures establish our baseline, a level we expect to recover and exceed through strategic reinvestment.

Impact of Sanctions

The numbers speak plainly: sanctions have severely constrained trade. By 2024, USA-Russia trade fell to $3.5 billion, a $32.5 billion decline from 2021. Exports dropped 91.8%, imports 89.9%, due to restrictions on energy, finance, and technology. Europe’s trade contracted to $97.9 billion in 2023, a $185.35 billion loss, with exports down 61.6% and imports 67.8%, primarily from energy bans and export controls. Beyond these losses, the broader impact includes foregone opportunities—new ventures, investments, and innovations stalled, costing billions in unrealized potential.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

With sanctions removed, Russia’s $7.19 trillion PPP GDP offers a vast market, amplified by its Eurasian connectivity. We project trade growing 30% above 2021 levels, driven by renewed USA-Russia relations and targeted investments. Below, we detail the potential by sector.

Energy

2021 Trade: Europe imported €98.9 billion in oil and gas; the USA, $12.7 billion in refined petroleum.

Potential: A sanctions-free environment would revitalize energy trade. Europe could increase imports by 20% to €118.68 billion ($130.55 billion), leveraging Russia’s reserves. The USA might see a 50% rise to $19.05 billion, with investments in Arctic and shale projects driving growth. This would bolster supply chains and create jobs.

Technology and Machinery

2021 Trade: Europe exported €19.5 billion in machinery and equipment; the USA, an estimated $5 billion.

Potential: Russia’s need for industrial modernization presents opportunities. Europe could achieve €25.35 billion ($27.89 billion), a 30% increase, through IT and machinery exports. The USA might reach $6.5-8 billion, as technology firms address Russia’s demand, enhancing productivity.

Agriculture

2021 Trade: Russia imported food products, with potential for Western machinery and seeds.

Potential: Trade could expand significantly, with the USA exporting $5-10 billion in commodities, fertilizers, and technology, and Europe reaching €10-15 billion ($11-16.5 billion). Collaboration with Russia’s grain export sector would strengthen global food security and economic ties.

Pharmaceuticals

2021 Trade: Europe exported €8.1 billion in pharmaceuticals; the USA, an estimated $1.5 billion.

Potential: New sales, including generics, could drive growth. The USA might add $0.3-0.45 billion, and Europe €1.62-2.43 billion ($1.78-2.67 billion), meeting Russia’s healthcare needs and expanding market access.

Automotive and Transportation

2021 Trade: Europe exported €8.95 billion in vehicles; the USA, an estimated $0.5 billion.

Potential: Resumed production and aerospace partnerships could lift Europe to €11.64-13.14 billion ($12.8-14.45 billion) and the USA to $0.6-0.65 billion, revitalizing manufacturing and connectivity.

Finance and Investment

Potential: Open capital markets could attract $50-70 billion in annual foreign direct investment, up from $10-20 billion. Western financial institutions would provide loans and services, supporting Russia’s economic stability.

Tourism and Cultural Exchanges

Potential: Enhanced travel and cultural ties could generate $5 billion in service trade for both the USA and Europe, driven by streamlined visas and direct flights, fostering economic and social bonds.

Trade Projections

From 2021’s baseline—$36 billion for the USA, $283.25 billion for the EU—we project a 30% increase, reaching $46.8 billion and $368.23 billion, respectively, totaling $415.03 billion. Russian economic analyses indicate a potential 2-3% GDP growth post-sanctions, suggesting further upside.

USA Trade by Sector

The table below details the USA’s potential to restore and expand trade with Russia across key sectors.

EU Trade by Sector

The table below outlines Europe’s substantial opportunities to expand trade with Russia.

Economic Context

Russia’s $7.19 trillion PPP GDP signals a market of considerable depth, enhanced by its position as a Eurasian trade hub, connecting Europe to Central Asia and beyond. Russian analyses forecast a 2-3% GDP increase post-sanctions, supported by Western investment and technology. Market conditions may influence outcomes, but a rapid reintegration is feasible, fostering mutual economic benefits.

Conclusion

Lifting sanctions could unlock trade exceeding $415.03 billion, with energy, technology, and agriculture at the forefront, complemented by pharmaceuticals, automotive, finance, and tourism. Russia’s economic strength and Eurasian role make this a critical juncture. Strategic investments can position the USA and Europe to capitalize on this opportunity, driving sustained growth and cooperation.

Selected Citations

• US Census Bureau Foreign Trade
• Eurostat EU Trade with Russia
• European Commission EU Trade Relations with Russia
• World Economics Russia’s GDP
• Sberbank Economic Update
• Vedomosti: Prospects for Russia’s Economy